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How would a trade war affect emerging markets?

September 2018
Gillian Edgeworth, Macro Strategist at Wellington Management

Three potential scenarios could lead to vastly different outcomes.

In my view, US tariffs implemented to date are unlikely to have a lasting negative impact on emerging markets (EMs). That said, cyclical and structural risks to the EM cycle may increase if the US continues to push additional levies. And not all EMs are in the same boat. The degree of dependence on the US for exports matters, as does the nature of exports.

Gillian Edgeworth, Macro Strategist at Wellington Management

Important Risks: Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. • Foreign investments may be more volatile and less liquid than U.S. investments and are subject to the risk of currency fluctuations and adverse political and economic developments. These risks may be greater for investments in emerging markets.

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