While the lava lamps and folk music of the time aren’t in vogue anymore, Bob Dylan’s anthem, “The Times, They Are A-Changin’” seems just as fitting today as it was in the tumultuous 1960s when it was written. It may feel as if we’re living in uncharted waters now, but are the issues we’re facing today really that unprecedented?
For example, many of the themes we’re facing in the 2020s correlate to those of the 1960s, a decade characterized by political upheaval, geopolitical tension, and social change. Americans today are as deeply divided on politics and social stances as they were in the 1960s, just as support is divided for ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and between Ukraine and Russia.
In short? The challenges we’re facing today are echoes of strife from the past. We’ve overcome such challenges and tumult before—both from an economic and cultural standpoint. And though volatility was inevitable then and is likely today, investors who stayed the course then were eventually rewarded.
Because People—And Markets—Are Resilient
The challenges we’ve faced have taken place in the midst of market volatility, bear markets, bull markets, inflation, stagflation, energy crises, and heightened geopolitical tensions. In other words, we’ve been through the social and economic wringer before, yet we’ve persevered.
Most telling of all? During the last 6 decades, only one (the 2000s, in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis) generated negative stock returns for the entire decade; bonds generated positive performance in every full decade.
Average Annual Return (%)
|
||
---|---|---|
Decade | Bonds | Stocks |
1960s | 3.48 | 7.81 |
1970s | 6.96 | 5.87 |
1980s | 12.43 | 17.55 |
1990s | 7.70 | 18.21 |
2000s | 6.33 | -0.95 |
2010s | 3.75 | 13.56 |
2020s | -0.33 | 14.53 |
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index, which is a market capitalization-weighted price index composed of 500 widely held common stocks, using data calculated by Ibbotson Associates. Historical data from 1929 to 1969 is calculated by Ibbotson. Bonds are represented by the IA SBBI LT Government Index, which measures the performance of a single issue of outstanding US Treasury notes with a maturity term of around 5.5 years. Indices are unmanaged and unavailable for direct investment. Source: Morningstar, 2/25.
In Other Words
For clients who are concerned about the state of markets today, historical perspective such as this can help them feel more confident—and stay invested. A look back at history shows that despite all manner of challenges, financial markets have historically moved onward and upward, as has our nation as a whole.
Financial Professional Next Steps
1 | This article is based on our popular The Times They Are A-Changin' brochure. Click here to access additional content to share. |
Important Risks: Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. • Fixed income security risks include credit, liquidity, call, duration, and interest-rate risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall.