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Economic Regime

Expansion

The economy is growing strongly, and momentum is building

Slowdown

Growth remains positive, but the pace of economic activity begins to cool

Contraction

Economic activity weakens as conditions deteriorate

Recovery

The economy begins to rebound, even if conditions still feel weak

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Market Leadership

Asset classes with expected relative outperformance during each part of the cycle

 

Equities

  • Cyclicals
  • Emerging markets (EM)
  • Small caps
  • Value

Equities

  • Defensive
  • Developed markets (foreign and domestic)
  • Low volatility

Rate Sensitive

  • Long duration
  • High-quality bonds

Equities

  • Cyclicals
  • EM
  • Small caps
  • Value

Credit

  • High yield
  • Bank loans
  • EM hard currency
     

Rate Sensitive

  • Long duration
  • High-quality bonds

Credit

  • IG Corporate
  • IG Securitized

Credit

  • High yield
  • Bank loans
  • EM hard currency

Rate Sensitive

  • Short duration
  • TIPS1

Credit

  • High yield
  • Bank loans
  • EM hard currency

Equities

  • Defensive
  • Developed markets (foreign and domestic)
  • Low volatility

Rate Sensitive

  • Intermediate duration
  • TIPS
 Expansion
Growth is accelerating, which has historically favored cyclical assets and risk‑taking
Examples:  
2003–2007: An expansion driven by housing, credit growth, and global trade
2010–2018: A prolonged expansion after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), supported by accommodative monetary policy and steady job gains
 Slowdown
Growth begins to slow, leading many investors to shift to more defensive areas of the market
Examples:  
2006–2007: Economic growth slowed but remained positive as housing and credit markets weakened
2018–2019: Growth slowed amid tighter financial conditions and trade uncertainty, but the economy avoided recession
 Contraction
Growth decelerates below trend, often coinciding with tighter financial conditions
Examples
2008–2009: During the GFC, credit markets collapsed and unemployment skyrocketed
Early 2020: The brief but severe COVID‑19 recession caused by widespread economic shutdowns
 Recovery
Growth remains below trend, but improving fundamentals signal a turning point
Examples:  
2009–2010: The initial recovery after the GFC, supported by stimulus and ultra‑easy monetary policy
Mid‑2020–2021: Rapid recovery after the pandemic recession as fiscal stimulus and pent‑up demand boosted growth

For illustrative purposes only. Data Sources: Morningstar and Hartford Funds, 2/26.

Your financial professional can help you interpret today’s economic environment and align your portfolio with your long-term goals.

 

1 Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are Treasury bonds that are adjusted to eliminate the effects of inflation on interest and principal payments, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of an investment’s price to nominal interest-rate movement.

Important Risks: Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. • Foreign investments may be more volatile and less liquid than U.S. investments and are subject to the risk of currency fluctuations and adverse political, economic and regulatory developments. These risks may be greater, and include additional risks, for investments in emerging markets or if focused in a particular geographic region or country. • Small-cap securities can have greater risks and volatility than large-cap securities. • Fixed income security risks include credit, liquidity, call, duration, and interest-rate risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall. • The value of inflation-protected securities (IPS) generally fluctuates with changes in real interest rates, and the market for IPS may be less developed or liquid, and more volatile, than other securities markets. • Investments in high-yield (“junk”) bonds involve greater risk of price volatility, illiquidity, and default than higher-rated debt securities. • Loans can be difficult to value and less liquid than other types of debt instruments; they are also subject to nonpayment, collateral, bankruptcy, default, extension, prepayment and insolvency risks. • Value investing style may go in and out of favor, which may cause the Fund to underperform other funds that use different investing styles. 

The views expressed here are those of the author and should not be construed as investment advice. This material and/or its contents are current as of the time of writing.

 


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The material on this site is for informational and educational purposes only. The material should not be considered tax or legal advice and is not to be relied on as a forecast. The material is also not a recommendation or advice regarding any particular security, strategy or product. Hartford Funds does not represent that any products or strategies discussed are appropriate for any particular investor so investors should seek their own professional advice before investing. Hartford Funds does not serve as a fiduciary. Content is current as of the publication date or date indicated, and may be superseded by subsequent market and economic conditions.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should carefully consider a fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. This and other important information is contained in the mutual fund, or ETF summary prospectus and/or prospectus, which can be obtained from a financial professional and should be read carefully before investing.

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