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In a situation that would have Sir Isaac Newton rolling in his grave, we’re disproving gravity: what went down (interest rates) must come back up.

Low rates can help spur economic growth by making it cheaper for consumers and businesses to borrow money; conversely, higher rates can be used to cool off an economy or inflation that’s running too hot.

 

What Do Rates Have to Do With Inflation?

The Fed sets monetary policy to try to keep the economy humming along with full employment and stable prices. One item in its toolbox is the ability to adjust the federal funds rate, or the rate at which banks borrow money from each other. This baseline rate influences interest rates on everything from mortgages and car loans to the interest earned on savings accounts or certificates of deposit (CDs).

Today, with a resilient economy and inflation that’s stubbornly above the targeted 2% rate, the Fed can raise the federal funds rate to discourage spending by both consumers and companies, in an effort to reduce demand and help rein in inflation. But raising rates will have some other ripple effects, too.


How Might Rising Rates Impact Me?

As with many things, how rising rates might impact you depends on your situation. Higher interest rates hurt borrowers since it makes it more expensive to take out loans, but tend to benefit savers since yields on savings accounts and CDs will eventually improve.

Seesaw showing interest rates rising and bond prices lowering

In this example, the price of a $1,000 bond would drop to about $922 if interest rates rose from 4% to 5%. The actual amount of price decrease will vary. This chart is for illustrative purposes only. 

For investors, equities that typically do well in a growing economy could be well positioned to withstand rising rates since the economy is in good shape. Companies with high debt levels, however, could face greater pressure since higher rates will make it more expensive to borrow or refinance their debt.

Since bonds have an inverse relationship with interest rates—as rates rise, bond prices fall—fixed-income investors are more likely to feel negative effects. Not all types of bonds will react the same way, but fixed-rate bonds with longer maturities are most sensitive to these changes (think US Treasury bonds).

 

A Dose of Perspective

For context, the average federal funds rate since 1960 is just under 5%. Even with recent increases, it remains below that long-term average (FIGURE 1). While bond and equity markets may react in the short term, higher rates haven’t prevented investors from achieving positive performance over the long term.

 

Seesaw showing interest rates rising and bond prices lowering

In this example, the price of a $1,000 bond would drop to about $922 if interest rates rose from 4% to 5%. The actual amount of price decrease will vary. This chart is for illustrative purposes only. 

Current Federal Funds Rate Is Well Below the Long-Term Average
Average Federal Funds Rates by Decade (1960–Present)

Bar chart showing fed funds rate by decade

 

 1960s1970s1980s1990s2000s2010s2020s
Average Inflation Rate2.57.45.12.92.51.84.1
Average Bond Returns3.57.012.47.76.33.80.4
Average Stock Returns7.85.917.618.2-1.013.615.3

Average effective federal funds rate as of 9/1/26, all others as of 9/30/26. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Stock returns are represented by the SBBI US Large Stock Index. Bond returns are represented by the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index from 1975 to 2025. Prior to 1975, returns are calculated by Ibbotson and are represented by the SBBI LT Government Index. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Sources: St. Louis Fed, US Department of Labor via FactSet, Morningstar, and Hartford Funds, 10/26.

 

In Summary

In many ways, rising rates reflect the resilience of the US economy despite a challenging inflation environment. And if the hikes work as intended, the high inflation we’ve been experiencing could moderate. That would make it far more affordable to buy apples, should you want to channel your inner Newton and re-test gravity.

 

Talk to your financial professional to help prepare your portfolio for today’s rising-rate environment.

 

SBBI US Large Stock Index measures the performance of the US large-cap equity market.  

Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is composed of securities that cover the US investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, with index components for government and corporate securities, mortgage pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities. 

SBBI LT Government Index measures the performance of a single issue of outstanding US Treasury notes with a maturity term of around 5.5 years.

Important Risks: Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. • Fixed-income security risks include credit, liquidity, call, duration, and interest-rate risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall. This information should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. In addition, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, tax, and financial condition of any specific person. This information has been prepared from sources believed reliable but the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. 

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