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Global Macro

Severance: The Split Between the Economy and the Markets

Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson
Supriya Menon

Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, Managing Director and Multi-Asset Strategist at Wellington Management and Global Investment Strategist for Hartford Funds


Supriya Menon,
 Managing Director and Multi-Asset Strategist – EMEA at Wellington Management

As global markets diverge from economic fundamentals, investors face a landscape shaped by tariffs, policy uncertainty, and shifting regional opportunities.

Since President Donald Trump shook the markets with his Liberation Day tariff announcement in early April, risk markets have climbed the proverbial wall of worry, with stocks bouncing back from double-digit sell-offs. Multiple rounds of tariff threats and walk-backs taught markets that the pattern of threat/détente will probably continue, but the worst-case scenario may be behind us. 

 

READ MORE


Could the Global Policy Response Misfire?

Johanna Kyrklund, Group Chief Investment Officer, Schroders Investment Management

John Butler, Head of Emerging-Market Equities at Wellington Management

Valuations in many markets are broadly cheap, and since a great deal of uncertainty is already priced in, there may be opportunities to consider adding to exposures in the coming months.

Two critical themes have underpinned our team’s macro research over the last few years:

1. The global economy is becoming less integrated, with higher hurdles for cross-border labor and capital flows, and growing pressure on supply chains. 

2. Policymakers seem increasingly unwilling to inflict the pain needed to pull inflation sustainably back to target.

In combination, these trends are reshaping the macroeconomic backdrop, leading to higher and more volatile inflation, shorter and less stable cycles, and structurally higher risk premia1 and yields.

 

READ MORE


 

Fixed Income

The Rates Perspective: Can Bonds Provide Shelter for Stormy Weather Ahead?

Amar Reganti, Managing Director at Wellington Management LLP and Fixed-Income Strategist for Hartford Funds 

Marco Giordano, Investment Director for Wellington Management

Can bonds still act as defensive assets amid growing concerns over government-debt sustainability?

We started the year expecting rates to remain elevated and increased divergence across bond markets, as investors and policymakers reacted to increasingly local growth/inflation dynamics. Markets have pondered the possibility of rates staying higher for longer on several occasions since the inflation shock of 2021–2022, only to look for signals of any easing to prompt market rallies, such as in the last quarter of 2023 and last summer. The question, then, is this: Will this time prove to be any different? And what can a bond allocation offer in a broader portfolio?

READ MORE


The Credit Perspective: How to Navigate the Rapids in a Year of Market Crosscurrents

Campe Goodman, CFA

Campe Goodman, CFA, Fixed-Income Portfolio Manager for Wellington Management

As conditions rapidly change, investors need to move with agility and purpose.

Did the first half of 2025 feel like a whitewater rafting trip you didn’t sign up for? If so, you’re not alone. What looked like a calm river paddle has turned into a wild ride that could’ve easily capsized markets and submerged the global economy. Yet the US economy has stayed afloat: Unemployment is historically low, and consumers are still paddling. Corporate fundamentals in the US and beyond remain solid, with healthy cash flows, limited new debt issuance, and muted merger activity.

 

READ MORE


 

Equities

Beyond US Exceptionalism: Where Now for Equities?

Amar Reganti Headshot

Andrew Heiskell, Equity Strategist at Wellington Management


Nicolas Wylenzek,
  Macro Strategist at Wellington Management

Economic “regime change” has been underway for nearly a decade. Going forward, the global shift presents risks and opportunities for stock investors.

What US exceptionalism is depends on who you’re asking. To most people, the term captures a sense of unassailable US leadership across multiple interlinked dimensions, such as geopolitics, military might, economic growth, fiscal spending, rule of law, technology and AI, and equity returns. As equity investors, we see US exceptionalism as the consistent outperformance of US equity markets relative to global counterparts. A shift in any of the dimensions that constitute US exceptionalism is likely to challenge many of the assumptions that have supported the US dollar’s dominance, creating implications for not only currency considerations and Treasuries, but also US equities.

 

READ MORE

  • Global Macro

     

    Global Macro

    Severance: The Split Between the Economy and the Markets

    Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson
    Supriya Menon

    Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, Managing Director and Multi-Asset Strategist at Wellington Management and Global Investment Strategist for Hartford Funds


    Supriya Menon,
     Managing Director and Multi-Asset Strategist – EMEA at Wellington Management

    As global markets diverge from economic fundamentals, investors face a landscape shaped by tariffs, policy uncertainty, and shifting regional opportunities.

    Since President Donald Trump shook the markets with his Liberation Day tariff announcement in early April, risk markets have climbed the proverbial wall of worry, with stocks bouncing back from double-digit sell-offs. Multiple rounds of tariff threats and walk-backs taught markets that the pattern of threat/détente will probably continue, but the worst-case scenario may be behind us. 

     

    READ MORE


    Could the Global Policy Response Misfire?

    Johanna Kyrklund, Group Chief Investment Officer, Schroders Investment Management

    John Butler, Head of Emerging-Market Equities at Wellington Management

    Valuations in many markets are broadly cheap, and since a great deal of uncertainty is already priced in, there may be opportunities to consider adding to exposures in the coming months.

    Two critical themes have underpinned our team’s macro research over the last few years:

    1. The global economy is becoming less integrated, with higher hurdles for cross-border labor and capital flows, and growing pressure on supply chains. 

    2. Policymakers seem increasingly unwilling to inflict the pain needed to pull inflation sustainably back to target.

    In combination, these trends are reshaping the macroeconomic backdrop, leading to higher and more volatile inflation, shorter and less stable cycles, and structurally higher risk premia1 and yields.

     

    READ MORE

  • Fixed Income

     

    Fixed Income

    The Rates Perspective: Can Bonds Provide Shelter for Stormy Weather Ahead?

    Amar Reganti, Managing Director at Wellington Management LLP and Fixed-Income Strategist for Hartford Funds 

    Marco Giordano, Investment Director for Wellington Management

    Can bonds still act as defensive assets amid growing concerns over government-debt sustainability?

    We started the year expecting rates to remain elevated and increased divergence across bond markets, as investors and policymakers reacted to increasingly local growth/inflation dynamics. Markets have pondered the possibility of rates staying higher for longer on several occasions since the inflation shock of 2021–2022, only to look for signals of any easing to prompt market rallies, such as in the last quarter of 2023 and last summer. The question, then, is this: Will this time prove to be any different? And what can a bond allocation offer in a broader portfolio?

    READ MORE


    The Credit Perspective: How to Navigate the Rapids in a Year of Market Crosscurrents

    Campe Goodman, CFA

    Campe Goodman, CFA, Fixed-Income Portfolio Manager for Wellington Management

    As conditions rapidly change, investors need to move with agility and purpose.

    Did the first half of 2025 feel like a whitewater rafting trip you didn’t sign up for? If so, you’re not alone. What looked like a calm river paddle has turned into a wild ride that could’ve easily capsized markets and submerged the global economy. Yet the US economy has stayed afloat: Unemployment is historically low, and consumers are still paddling. Corporate fundamentals in the US and beyond remain solid, with healthy cash flows, limited new debt issuance, and muted merger activity.

     

    READ MORE

  • Equities

     

    Equities

    Beyond US Exceptionalism: Where Now for Equities?

    Amar Reganti Headshot

    Andrew Heiskell, Equity Strategist at Wellington Management


    Nicolas Wylenzek,
      Macro Strategist at Wellington Management

    Economic “regime change” has been underway for nearly a decade. Going forward, the global shift presents risks and opportunities for stock investors.

    What US exceptionalism is depends on who you’re asking. To most people, the term captures a sense of unassailable US leadership across multiple interlinked dimensions, such as geopolitics, military might, economic growth, fiscal spending, rule of law, technology and AI, and equity returns. As equity investors, we see US exceptionalism as the consistent outperformance of US equity markets relative to global counterparts. A shift in any of the dimensions that constitute US exceptionalism is likely to challenge many of the assumptions that have supported the US dollar’s dominance, creating implications for not only currency considerations and Treasuries, but also US equities.

     

    READ MORE

For more timely insights, please see our Market Perspectives.

1 Risk premia is the investment return an asset is expected to yield in excess of the risk-free rate of return.

Important Risks: Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. • Foreign investments may be more volatile and less liquid than US investments and are subject to the risk of currency fluctuations and adverse political, economic, and regulatory developments. These risks may be greater, and include additional risks for investments in emerging markets. • Fixed income security risks include credit, liquidity, call, duration, and interest-rate risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall.

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